Sahm Rule 2024 Elections. The sahm rule was developed by economist claudia sahm back in 2019 to provide policymakers with a general framework with which to forecast a. The unemployment rate is now up 0.5 percentage point from last april.
The new rule also has a better historical track record: It is meant to serve as a helpful guide for policymakers and intended to act as an “early diagnosis” of possible recession.